Two New National Polls show Whitehouse Race is now Deadlocked

[New2u]

Two New Polls Show Deadlocked White House Race

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two national polls on Thursday showed the race between President Bush (news - web sites) and Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) deadlocked as Bush's convention bounce faded, although the president has made headway in key swing states.

Latest headlines:
· Two New Polls Show Deadlocked White House Race
Reuters - 12 minutes ago

In polls certain to buoy the spirits of anxious Democrats, the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive found equal levels of support for the White House contenders as Kerry rebounded from the withering attacks he faced at the Republican convention that ended on Sept. 2.


The new surveys followed two other polls in recent days, by Investor's Business Daily and a Democratic group, Democracy Corps, that found the race essentially even again, just as it was for months before the two parties held their nominating conventions.


"Some of the negative attacks against Kerry are wearing off and he has stayed in the game because people are discontent with Bush on Iraq (news - web sites) and the economy," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.


"Unfortunately for Kerry, he's been unable to tap into that unhappiness, especially on Iraq," Kohut said, noting Bush still beats Kerry 52-40 percent on who was favored to lead the war in Iraq. "It's a mixed picture for Kerry, but that's better than what he had a few days ago."


Several other recent polls have shown Bush, who bounced to a double-digit lead in two polls after the Republican convention, holding a four- to seven-point lead over Kerry.


A flurry of new state polls, meanwhile, showed Bush moving ahead in key states like Florida and Nevada and challenging Kerry in Democratic strongholds like New Jersey.


VOTERS UNSETTLED


"We went through a period for months where there was no air between these candidates in the polls ... and now it's the opposite," Kohut said. "I think it shows the voters are unsettled, their thoughts about Kerry are unsettled and they are going back and forth."


A new National Annenberg Election Survey earlier this week found Bush gaining ground as a leader and in the war on terror, but his approval ratings among undecided and "persuadable" voters dropped below levels from before the convention.


Kerry has sharpened his message and gone on the offensive against Bush this week on Iraq and the economy, challenging the president's credibility and his leadership on both issues.


The new focus came as he faced a chorus of complaints from fellow Democrats about his failure to develop a coherent message and respond quickly to attacks on his record in Vietnam.


"I feel very comfortable with where we are," Democratic Party boss Terry McAuliffe said. "As it relates to the battleground states, I think we're in a very good position."


Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel said the campaign always expected a close race and nothing has changed.


"We've seen polls over the past week that show the president ahead, some well ahead and some slightly ahead, or tied," he said. "What we are planning for is a close election, potentially as close as 2000."


The Pew survey sampled voters in two waves. The first poll of likely voters, taken Sept. 8-10, found Bush ahead by 16 percentage points. The second poll on Sept. 11-14, which had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found Bush with a statistically insignificant one-point lead. Among registered voters, it was deadlocked.


The Harris poll, which was conducted Sept. 9-13 and had a 3 point margin of error, found Kerry with a one-point lead. A Harris poll in June gave Bush a 10 percentage point lead.

[venray]

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Polls show Bush taking lead


President Bush and presidential candidate John Kerry


POOL POOH POOHING: Despite some polls indicating President Bush taking the lead or gaining among key constituencies in his reelection campaign, John Kerry disputes the incumbent received a "bounce" following the Republican National Convention. "I don't know what you're talking about in terms of the 'Bush bounce,' " Kerry said in an interview with Time magazine released yesterday. "This is a very close race, and I'm not somebody that runs around worried about polls. If I did, I wouldn't have gotten up last December. Polls don't mean anything to me right now."

__________________________________________________ ___________________

I agree with Kerry for once..polls mean nothing........


;)



Ray

[New2u]

Yes, polls really don't mean that much. The reason I posted this is because a lot of people (including myself) starting thinking that maybe Bush might pull this off. But when the very latest polls came out today, it showed that Bush's convention "bounce" is starting to wear off and it is decending rather quickly. Once again, it shows that the race moving to a close "photo finish" by November 2nd. Unless Bush can pull another "November miracle" like he did in 2000, he'll lose the Whitehouse for sure. But if Kerry wins the popular vote and Bush the electorial college again which can help Bush retain the Whitehouse it could very well work against Bush for his second term, especially combined with the Iraq war mess which will make Bush's second term A maze of political "landmines" and many "divided" American voters. If, by some miracle, Bush makes it for a second term, look for the continued resurgence and growth of the new "liberalism"

[ShadowTklr]

Hey guys. I heard that Bush's lead widened by another 3 points, giving him 14 points over Kerry. I'd love to find out I was grossly incorrect. :)

[venray]

Updated: 06:38 AM EDT
New Poll Shows Bush, Kerry in Virtual Tie
Another Has Bush Leading by 14 Points; 'Voter Opinion Is Unsettled,' Analyst Says
By WILL LESTER, AP



WASHINGTON (Sept. 17) -- President Bush has a double-digit lead in one new national poll, but he's tied with Democrat John Kerry in another. Both campaigns say their own polling has the race close, with Bush's people seeing a slight lead for the president.


Bush continues to hold a commanding lead on the question of who would do the best job of defending the country from terrorists.

Kerry and Bush are tied in a Pew Research Center poll taken Sept. 11-14, after Bush was up by 12 points or more from a Pew sample taken Sept. 8-10. A Gallup poll being released early Friday has Bush up 54 percent to 40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

''After so long when the polls were deadlocked no matter what happened, now we have a situation where voter opinion is unsettled,'' said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. ''There's a lot of uncertainty and you're going to have more variation in the polls than we've had in the past.''


The first of two national polls by Pew, done Sept. 8-10, reflected the president's post-convention bounce. Bush was ahead of Kerry 52-40 among registered voters and by an even wider margin, 54-39, among likely voters, a narrower group.

By the second poll, done Sept. 11-14, the Bush lead had evaporated, the center said Thursday. In that poll, Bush and Kerry were knotted at 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush was at 47 percent and Kerry at 46 percent.

While Bush has held onto some positive impact from the GOP convention, his ''vulnerabilities on Iraq and the economy continue, and these have anchored the race,'' Kohut said.

After the Republican convention and its four days of criticism of Kerry, Bush grabbed a lead ranging from 5 points to 11 points in various national polls. That lead appeared to be shrinking by late last week, and a Harris poll out Thursday also showed the race even.

Bush continues to hold a commanding lead on the question of who would do the best job of defending the country from terrorists, by 58 percent to 31 percent in the Pew poll. And he's seen by more as a strong leader.

But people are more likely to disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and are evenly split on his dealing with Iraq. Almost six in 10 said it's not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is re-elected.

Interest in the presidential debates is high with 61 percent saying it's very likely they will tune in to watch - compared with 43 percent who said that in September 2000. Three in 10 said the debates will matter in their voting decision.


By a 3-1 margin, voters said they think Bush is likely to win re-election in November.

The first Pew poll of 970 registered voters was taken Sept. 8-10 and the second poll of 1,002 registered voters was taken Sept. 11-14. The margin of sampling error for both polls was 3.5 percentage points.

The Gallup poll of 767 likely voters was taken Sept. 13-15 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


09-17-04 0549 EDT

[Mitchell]

I read these polls, and wonder what goes through people's minds when they take these polls. The numbers should say something. Six in 10 admit Bush has no plan, or stated none, to win the peace. Many disapprove of his handling of the economy, and all people seem to talk about is the war on terror. I say this:
What plan is there to win the peace, when soldiers keep dying every day with no end to the war in sight? I have heard reports that if Bush gets back in, we may be in Iraq for as long as he's in office. I do know that Kerry has stated he wants to bring the troops home. Also, allies are more likely to work with him than they are with Bush, because Bush has destroyed our credibility around the world.
What is very disturbing is how people only refer to Bush as a "strong leader" in Iraq. Losing 1000 soldiers in a misguided war is strong? Furthermore, it seems all people talk about is the war. We have so many other domestic issues in this country that are not being dealt with. The loss of jobs in Bush's term, the runaway deficit caused by the war. What about these issues? It seems to me that voters should have many issues on their minds when voting for president in November, not just one.
I know we shouldnt put stock in polls, but I do hope that people consider many issues when going to vote in November. This election is too important to decide solely on the merit of what might happen with the war if Bush loses. Here's a thought, think of what might and could happen if he wins?

Mitch

[venray]

Here's a thought....Kery gets in and pulls the troops and Iraq goes into civil war.
He goes to the UN and they tell him to stay away as we've done enough harm.

My point is that no one knows exactly what will happen no matter who gets into office. Everyone wants a good job, lower taxes, great health care an end to poverty, and no war...that's what everyone "wants"... that's a perfect and most unrealistic world.

It is something to shoot for but it will nevr be attained without world cooperation...something that will never happer,


Ray

[New2u]

Venray, I tend to stick to Nixon's theory on incumbant re-election that, no matter what's happening, voters usually stick to the "bread and butter" issues. Do they have employment? can they feed their kids? can they afford to buy something if the prices are not affected with inflation? gas for the car, etc? I find it a little hard to believe that voters are that totally preoccupied with the terrorism thing. I see it as more of a manipulation by the Bush people to put the spotlight on that rather than on the economy and a failed foriegn policy.

[Candlewicke]

In an ideal, civics book democracy, citizens would explore the details and vote based on the merits.

But in our overworked daily lives where talk show rants pass for public discourse, the truth gets buried by the rhetoric, the ordinary citizen is gulled by the stagecraft - and the imagery of leadership wins the day.

Bush has seized upon the iconography of the honest cowboy, the regular guy clearing brush on his Texas ranch, the war hero arriving by fighter plane to rescue America.

Experts who study how public issues become framed in people's minds say that you can't change views merely with evidence. You have to change the frame.

Successful candidates have seized on a big theme that carried within it both the hopes of ordinary people and the seeds of a program. John Kennedy did it with his "We can do bettah." Bill Clinton succeeded with "putting people first." Ronald Reagan turned the national pessimism of the Carter years into a sunny "Morning in America."

Kerry can only win a hearing to challenge all that is fake about Bush and his policy particulars if he first changes the frame.

He needs to reframe Bush by pounding on all the ways that Bush is a fraud, and he needs to do it with grace and wit.

The tax cuts didn't create jobs. No Child Left Behind is big government without the resources. The deficit will sandbag the economy for decades. The Medicare drug plan is a fake. Privatizing Social Security will leave retirees worse off. The environment is wealth waiting to be plundered by his industry cronies.

Whether the venue is Iraq, the phony case for war and the disastrous aftermath, the hit-and-run policy in Afghanistan, North Korea's quest for nuclear weapons, or the vaunted "war on terror" and the Keystone Kops Homeland Security Department, it's all left America and the world less safe.

Then Kerry will be able to present a clear, simple vision of a secure, prosperous America more compelling than Bush's version - and he'll finally be heard.

- Robert Kuttner for the Boston Globe -

[New2u]

Candlewicke, beautifully stated and I totally agree with you. Properly "framing" the vision and scope helps to win elections. Kerry needs to work on that. Bush has appropriated the "Cowboy" image from Reagan and it seems to be working to a certain extent. However, like Reagan, that "billboard" imagine Bush cultivated, has the usual 2 x 4's in the back which shows that he is nothing of the sort, in reality, Bush is a wealthy "elite" Yale man attempting to "charm" the public by swinging a cowboy hat.