Current straw poll results.....

[venray]

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

[MrMacphisto]

Wow... it's a good thing that voters aren't registering through AOL... I always figured that AOL was a bastion of idiocy...

[drew70]

Typical liberal response. "The polls don't support my weak excuse for a candidate, so they're faulty," or even more popular "They're padded by the Governor of Florida!!" :blaugh:

[venray]

Straw poll : (noun)

1: an unofficial vote taken to determine opinion on some issue [syn: straw vote]

In other words, Mac...AOL or not it makes no difference. It reflects the current view of the majority of the 170,000 people that have participated this month thus far. What you are saying is that because it is found on AOL it has no meaning. Basically that means that no poll found on the internet has any meaning.

There are millions of registered voters that use AOL, Mac. This is a reflection of the opinion of some of them. Take it for what it is worth.

It has swung back and forth between the candidates, but never so far as to give Kerry enogh votes to win an election.

If you look at the individual states one at a time, you can see that the % is still very close and it will indeed be a close election.

It is not a scientific poll, but the results do reflect a broader base of the population than you see used in many of the quickie polls from CNN and other news organizations.

Straw polls tend to reflect opinions better than othe rtypes.


Ray

[Mitchell]

According to the straw poll, the electoral map gave Bush 399 electoral votes to something like 139 for Kerry. While I acknowledge that Bush could very well win unless Kerry pulls off a major upset, the electoral map on this poll had certain states in Bush's column that are either too close to call, or called incorrectly. I can cite my info, for example:
The straw poll has Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes shaded in red for Bush. In fact, all major polls show Kerry with between a 6 and 10 point lead in PA, and the major news sources here have essentially said that Bush has given up in PA. If one gives Kerry PA, that brings Bush's electoral vote count down to 378 and Kerry's up to 160. In addition, Florida, with 27 electoral votes, was shaded in Bush's column on this survey when in fact every Florida poll I have heard says it is too close to call. If one takes out Florida from the definite Bush column, it brings him down to 351 electoral votes. The straw poll also had New Jersey in Bush's column, which is also incorrect to assume, because all the New Jersey polls say the race is too close to call there as well.
Granted, it is likely that if things stay as they are, Bush will probably have more than enough electoral votes to take the election, at probably 300 or more, but it would be nice if this straw poll had a color code for undecided as well, instead of reporting states like PA incorrectly as definite Bush wins, or automatically assuming that every close state will go to Bush. Iam not saying Bush isnt going to win, because I dont know, nor does anyone really. What I do suspect is that whatever happens, this election will not be decided until the end, and there might be a few surprises before it is over.

Mitch

[MrMacphisto]

I suppose you both misunderstood my response... I wasn't questioning the validity of AOL's poll; I was making a statement of my opinion toward the people being polled.

[venray]

Of which I AM one Mac......

Mitch. This poll is just as valid as those you point out...as are a hundred others on the net...


Exactly my point..

[New2u]

The latest polls (The accurate ones that is) show Kerry and Bush in a dead heat.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&e=3&u=/nm/20041020/pl_nm/campaign_poll_wednesday_dc

[venray]

There are no accurate polls New....Unless you poll every voter who will definitely vote this year you will NEVER get an accurate result..

Ray

[redway10]

Single-minded belief in the almighty triumphs over logic most of the time. Looks like it will be victorious again.

"My Uncle George went to Washington and wasted $7 trillion to win a second term".

[New2u]

Ray, I would agree with you that there are aren't any real"absolutely" accurate polls so let me phrase this another way, polls that are "reasonably" within the ballpark. There are more polls that have come out since yesterday which are showing (again) that Bush and Kerry are "neck and neck" with each other with one moving ahead of the other by one point from day to day. We won't know the "real" results until after November 2nd. But then, that may not happen either (look what happen with election 2000). This election, I believe, represents a repeat "symptom" of a serious problem within this country called, "division". Mr. Bush seems to have "split" this country right down the middle with one side that loves him no matter what, and the other that hates him, no matter what, Which is counter to what Bush stated in his 2000 campaign that he considers himself a "uniter" not a "divider". Well, the evidence is in...he is a "divider". To borrow an old Ronald Reagan phrase, we are in worse shape now than we were four years ago. Bush has done a lot of damage in his first four years, he needs a second term to really "finish" the job so this country will be "finished" for good as far as international standing is concerned. Killian's former secreatary said it best (to paraphrase) that Bush feels that he always knows best and doesn't care what the facts say. To his supporters, they like that about him, to his detractors, he's stubborn and won't listen to reason. A President who will not look at the circumstances or facts and continues to "plow" his way (Damn the torpetos, full speed ahead) into a war and won't acknowledge the serious problems that are occurring is a President who needs to be removed from office, of course, that may not happen.

[venray]

nope..instead he'll be out shooting up geese with a 12 gauge like Kerry was this week....makes sense for someone who believes (or used to believe) in animal rights and gun control.....:rolleyes:

[New2u]

Ray, on gun control, what Kerry was for was the assault weapons ban (AK47's, machine guns, military styled weaponry) which are weapons that are being used against our police force. In some cases, the criminal druggies are better armed then some of our police departments. I'm for every American's right to own a hand gun or rifle, but to have an "assault weapon" which can turn an automobile into metallic "swiss cheese" in a matter of seconds is a case of "overkill". The general population really doesn't need to have these weapons which can be "stolen" or obtained through illegal channels. I'm not aware of his stand on "animal rights" though.

For what it's worth department, the kids on Nicolodian were polled about who they would vote for it they were old enough, the results:

http://www.nick.com/all_nick/specials/kidsPickThePresident/results.jhtml

[venray]

Study his Senate record carefully.....Read the text of his speeches over the years gone by (I heard many of them first hand)

Then tell me about gun control. (I note you didnt comment on animal rights VS hunting or blasting a goose with a shotgun...:rolleyes: )

As for the Nick "what it's worth"......It isnt or kids would have the right to vote...they arent old enough nor do most have a clue what is happening in the world. They echo what they hear from their parents...:D

Ray

[gibby59]

Originally posted by New2u
Ray, on gun control, what Kerry was for was the assault weapons ban (AK47's, machine guns, military styled weaponry) which are weapons that are being used against our police force. In some cases, the criminal druggies are better armed then some of our police departments. I'm for every American's right to own a hand gun or rifle, but to have an "assault weapon" which can turn an automobile into metallic "swiss cheese" in a matter of seconds is a case of "overkill". The general population really doesn't need to have these weapons which can be "stolen" or obtained through illegal channels. I'm not aware of his stand on "animal rights" though.

The Assault weapons ban was a big joke! All it did was ban the sale of "look alike" weapons - weapons that look like true assault weapons. The sale and ownership of true assualt weapons (i.e. capable of fully automatic fire) to the "general population" has been strictly controlled since 1934. The only way to legally own a weapon that can turn an automobile into metallic "swiss cheese" is to obtain a federal license which involves having, among other things, an FBI background check done, having your fingerprints on record with the FBI, and paying about $400 per year to renew it. The "ban" didn't do squat to protect police officers. It was merely a smoke screen to make it seem like the politicians were doing something. If you search the statistics to see if any fully automatic weapons were used in the commission of a crime, you might find a few, but those were illegally obtained. Very few if any legally owned fully automatic weapons have ever been used in the commission of a crime. Unfortunately, criminals don't obey the laws.

Kerry was just out today shooting geese in Ohio, so I don't think he is a big animal rights activist.

[New2u]

Ray, the reason I didn't comment on that is because of what I said in my last post, I'm not aware of Kerry's stand on "animal rights". I don't know how he feels about that.

On the nicolodian kid vote, back in 2000, when those kids went for Bush, the Repubs made sure that the media knew about it. I guess,with Kerry winning it's like the budget deficeit, something the Repubs just "dismiss".

[Cosmo_ac]

Keep in mind, Gibby, it isn't that hard to turn a weapon from semi-auto to full auto. You just have to play with a few things. I had an old friend who owned a .22 10 clip rifle. All he did was play with it a little, and he then could fire off bursts.

Now, imagine what a person who took a little time could do with something like a M16 or AK-47. Now, add on a 50 round clip, and you have a serious danger. I personally see no point in assault weapons being sold over the counter. Unless those guns have been made to be impossible to be made to be auto-matic, i can deffinitly see how the police wouldn't like them.

[New2u]

Gibby59 said,

The "ban" didn't do squat to protect police officers. It was merely a smoke screen to make it seem like the politicians were doing something.

Gibby, I know you copied this from "Factcheck" but there was more information that you left out. Factcheck also said that "...Mr. Bush was a supporter of the ban in 2000. The expiration of the ban had to do more with congress than Bush". Since a majority of Repubs are in the pocket of the NRA that's why it was done. Special interest pressure.

[gibby59]

Originally posted by New2u
Gibby59 said,



Gibby, I know you copied this from "Factcheck" but there was more information that you left out. Factcheck also said that "...Mr. Bush was a supporter of the ban in 2000. The expiration of the ban had to do more with congress than Bush". Since a majority of Repubs are in the pocket of the NRA that's why it was done. Special interest pressure.

Sorry New2u I didn't copy this from Factcheck but thanks for the info. As for the majority of Repubs being in the pocket of the NRA. The same could be said about the majority of the Dems being in the pocket of the anti-gun special interest groups.

[gibby59]

Originally posted by cosmo_ac
Keep in mind, Gibby, it isn't that hard to turn a weapon from semi-auto to full auto. You just have to play with a few things. I had an old friend who owned a .22 10 clip rifle. All he did was play with it a little, and he then could fire off bursts.

Now, imagine what a person who took a little time could do with something like a M16 or AK-47. Now, add on a 50 round clip, and you have a serious danger. I personally see no point in assault weapons being sold over the counter. Unless those guns have been made to be impossible to be made to be auto-matic, i can deffinitly see how the police wouldn't like them.

It's easy either to turn a semi-auto weapon to full auto and it's also against existing federal laws. So if your friend isn't careful he may get a visit from the not so friendly people at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tabacco and Firearms. They may confiscate his rifle and he may face the possibility of prison time. True assault weapons are not sold "over-the-counter" so to speak. You can only purchase them if you have a valid federal license. I still don't believe that many, if any fully automatic weapons have been used in the commission of a crime. If someone has the FBI stats please share them.

[Cosmo_ac]

Gibby, i doubt criminals are worried about commiting a criminal offence.

[New2u]

Ok Gibby, you got me on that one. Yes, there are many "anti-gun" groups supporting the Democatic party to counter the many "pro-gun" groups like the NRA for the Republicans. Just like the Republicans cater to the Pro-Lifer crowd and the Democrats to the Pro-Choice groups. Kinda like the "Ying and the Yang".

[venray]

More like Dumb and Dumber.......You guys still talkin' about all this crap? Oh well...to each their own.

But there are far better things to so, so...bbye for now....see ya after the debacle in November...be good.


Ray

[Mitchell]

LOL! Nice exit line, venray. It's still razor thin with a week to go, and today I'm sure you saw how Kerry brought out secret weapon Bill Clinton to help in the last week of the campaign. Clinton appeared at rallies in Philadelphia, and Miami. I know you dont like "polls" but the latest ones I have heard have Kerry as much as 5 points ahead in Ohio, ten points ahead in Michigan, and generally conceded to win PA. Bush has a decent lead in Fl, but that wont matter if Kerry gets the other three. Bush 41 won Fl in 1992 and didnt win the presidency anyway. It is still anyone's election, but the commentary I've been hearing has the momentum shifting to Kerry. I only hope it continues. See you next Wed! Ha ha!

Mitch

[venray]

Mitch..this past weekend I was away on a business trip where I was renewed with life...I dont care if you elect Al Sharpton as president..it makes and will make no difference in the world....

Bill Clinton..secret weapon.....ROFL...more like an act of desperation as time runs out....taking a sick man on the road at best shows how scared Kerry is...at worst....well no point dwelling on it at this point...

You know exactly how much value polls have....ROFLMAO! If you wish to spend time over analzing them...knock yourself out. Keeps ya off the streets and outa trouble....

God help us no matter who wins....as a country we are finished as far as the rest of the judgemental world is concerned......

As a people, however there is much to be done.....

My last 2 cents in this forum....

Ray

[New2u]

Alfred E. Nuemann (The guy with the red hair and the missing tooth) the MAD magazine icon should be President, he couldn't be any worse than the current occupant. In fact, they both have the same philosophy: "What, me worry?"

[New2u]

The latest zogby poll seems to be the most reasonably accurate poll available. Again, it shows Kerry as within 1 percentage point of Bush. The conclusion coincides with what I've been saying all along, that this race is going to be a "photo finish" come next Tuesday. I found out that Gore was, at least, 8 percentage points behind Bush in some polls back in 2000, but ended up winning the popular vote. This time, with Kerry, it's within 1 to 2 points of Bush. "W" better start applying more "Right Guard" deoderant to control his sweating which I'm sure has become profusly now since the race is approaching the end.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&e=2&u=/nm/20041027/pl_nm/campaign_poll_wednesday_dc

[sushi854]

All the polls are really indicating at this time to me is pretty much what everyone else here is arguing about: there are plenty of factors to consider, and it could go either way. By the way, is anyone actually considering the importance of the Nicolodeon kids poll as an important factor?

[New2u]

It actually doesn't mean anything, the some of the conservatives crowed about it back in 2000 when the kids went for Bush, but what do kids know.

[MrMacphisto]

Originally posted by redway10
Single-minded belief in the almighty triumphs over logic most of the time.

Nice one, Redway... I hope you don't mind if I use that as my signature from now on... :D

[MrMacphisto]

Originally posted by venray1
As for the Nick "what it's worth"......It isnt or kids would have the right to vote...they arent old enough nor do most have a clue what is happening in the world. They echo what they hear from their parents...:D

Ray

I'd argue the same is true of adults... It's probably a good thing that humans haven't encountered any intelligent life forms in outer space, because if we did, they probably would find us utterly repulsive or just kill us to spare the rest of the universe our wretched existences....

[venray]

I have to agree with you again Mac...on all counts......;)