Mitchell
10-24-2004, 12:17 PM
I was just listening to Chris Matthews on his Sunday morning talk show on NBC. He had a panel of political spin doctors on, including political columnist Howard Fineman, NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell, and other panelists. The panelists claimed several things. The first one was that George W Bush is probably going to lose my state of Pennsylvania, a state that he has been to 40 plus times, and that he considered crucial in his re election. In fact, Bush will be here in Lancaster again this Wednesday.
Secondly, the panelists asserted that two crucial states in the election, Florida and Ohio, are essentially too close to call. Both states, especially Ohio, with many new registered voters, may be decided by the number and type of new registered voters that turn out at the polls. According to most analysts, and this panel, it would seem that many new registered voters, both in Ohio and nationally, will tend to lean towards Kerry.
However, the commentators did bring out a serious point that could be a potentially lethal blow to Kerry. They asserted that Michigan, which Gore won last time and is traditionally Democratic, has been showing trends of leaning towards Bush. To quote one panelist, this would be a disaster for Kerry if this happened, and would essentially "finish" Kerry. That would be a lethal scenario. I dont know of Kerry's campaign plans this week, beyond a rally with Clinton in Philly tomorrow, but were I him, I would make a final trip to Michigan this week, as he needs to keep that state in his column to have a chance to win.
The commentary I have heard most often for weeks is this. For Kerry to win, he must win Pennsylvania, which it looks like he's going to according to the latest polls. He must get either Ohio or Florida, and one smaller state. I've heard rumors that Kerry is ahead in traditionally Republican Colorado, which may not have many electoral votes, but which may be key in a close or tied election.
One final point: The panel also asserted that we may not actually know who is president on election night, and there may not be the traditional "concession call" from the winner to the loser, as both candidates may well claim victory, and things like absentee and military ballots may come into primary focus. They did not assert that the election would necessarially turn out like 2000, but did say that absentee and other ballots may take a while to count in what should be a razor close election.
All interesting points. The other deciding factor in this election is undoubtedly going to be voter turnout, and undecided voters. The panel, which talked of about 105 million people voting last time, predicted that we could have as many as 120 million voting this time, which would be a gigantic turnout. It seems likely that the undecided and newly registered voters will probably determine the outcome of this election.
Mitch
Secondly, the panelists asserted that two crucial states in the election, Florida and Ohio, are essentially too close to call. Both states, especially Ohio, with many new registered voters, may be decided by the number and type of new registered voters that turn out at the polls. According to most analysts, and this panel, it would seem that many new registered voters, both in Ohio and nationally, will tend to lean towards Kerry.
However, the commentators did bring out a serious point that could be a potentially lethal blow to Kerry. They asserted that Michigan, which Gore won last time and is traditionally Democratic, has been showing trends of leaning towards Bush. To quote one panelist, this would be a disaster for Kerry if this happened, and would essentially "finish" Kerry. That would be a lethal scenario. I dont know of Kerry's campaign plans this week, beyond a rally with Clinton in Philly tomorrow, but were I him, I would make a final trip to Michigan this week, as he needs to keep that state in his column to have a chance to win.
The commentary I have heard most often for weeks is this. For Kerry to win, he must win Pennsylvania, which it looks like he's going to according to the latest polls. He must get either Ohio or Florida, and one smaller state. I've heard rumors that Kerry is ahead in traditionally Republican Colorado, which may not have many electoral votes, but which may be key in a close or tied election.
One final point: The panel also asserted that we may not actually know who is president on election night, and there may not be the traditional "concession call" from the winner to the loser, as both candidates may well claim victory, and things like absentee and military ballots may come into primary focus. They did not assert that the election would necessarially turn out like 2000, but did say that absentee and other ballots may take a while to count in what should be a razor close election.
All interesting points. The other deciding factor in this election is undoubtedly going to be voter turnout, and undecided voters. The panel, which talked of about 105 million people voting last time, predicted that we could have as many as 120 million voting this time, which would be a gigantic turnout. It seems likely that the undecided and newly registered voters will probably determine the outcome of this election.
Mitch