I know I don't post much especially on the main boards but I read this article that I provided and frankly, as a big NFL fan i'm scared shitless for it's future. I was hoping to get some responses for this dilemma from some of the knowledgeable sports fans here. It seems that the most pressing issue facing the NFL owners at their meeting isnt the length of the players' hair, forceouts, or even cheating. Its the state of the NFL economy. Math, finances and union bargaining are not among my strong points, so bear with me. If anyone can make it clearer, please do.
Some owners wish to opt out of the collective bargaining agreement. The immediate effective would be to make 2010 an uncapped year. Owners like Jerry Jones and Dan Synder would have a field day and small market teams would give away and would soon be gone. Teams like the Green Bay Packers maybe. It would be the end of football as we know it. Another part of the financial issue is the fact that the NFL has a debt of 9 billion dollars, more than any other league. Much of this debt is tied up in new stadiums. Goodell says margins are tight and interest rates could go up and this could have a significant impact on clubs. Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen says that their labor deal isnt working. The Broncos have cut 8 front office positions but they wont cut resources in their football operations.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2008-03-31-owners-meetings_N.htm
The country's economy is hurting bad, but teams are building stadiums and many of them are raising ticket prices. Players are getting paid outrageous sums of money. Can the average Joe afford to shell out the kind of money needed to attend these games. Is this the point where the NFL cuts its own throat?
AHHHHH a man after my own heart.
Let not your heart be troubled my friend.
1.) the NFL will never be baseball. the structure of the draft prevents it. college football is the best hedge in the world against that. in the MLB you have to devote money to a multitier farm system to develop talent, and the draft is not the biggest way of player acquisition. you have to send scouts all over the world etc. the progressive structire of the nfl draft, and the abundance of football talent in north america prevents a pure baseball system.
Talent acquisition is always going to be the determining factor. the Marlins win a WS every other year because they have the ability to go out and find the best players in the world and then sell them to the bigger clubs when they are past their prime to drive up their player costs. the difference between them and a team like the yankees is that in thier system they don't have the monetary ability to keep guys till they are 40.
also the economics of baseball are much much bigger. over the course of a MBL season there are 162 games and then playoff series. in the nfl there are 24-25 games total for the team that advances all the way to the superbowl. with a truncated scheduel it is a lot harder to have the wealth desparity that exists in the MLB. think about it, A rods salary itself is worth three times the current cap number and more than 80 million dollars more than what Bear Sterns was worth when it was bought.
Football players are done at 32ish. in baseball you have pitchers over 40 who are still instrumental starters for teams in the playoffs and are commanding the highest salaries. In the NFL there is a constant system of replacement because of a shorter window of a players prime.
2.) the salary cap does not work. The two lies of the salary cap.
a.) there would not be a dynasty-tom brady ripped that to shreds.
b.) the small market teams will be able to compete with the big market teams and still make a profit.
the NFL is now and has always been about finding a QB that can win over the longterm. very few times is that QB acquired by freeagency. usually that player is drafted and groomed by the team that they go on to win with. The pats beat the system because they drafted a kid in the 6th round who just happens to be the greatest QB to ever lace it up. the colts had manning, the cowboys had aikman, the steelers had bradshaw, unitas was unitas, etc. the question really comes down to cap or no cap do you have the guy that can win.
I am from jacksonville. we are the lowest revenue team in the league and the salary cap has basicly screwed our team twice. how can that happen? It's suposed to protect teams like us right? well in 1999 when we were selling out games, winning playoff games, etc. after we lost the AFC championship game (our second in 5 years) we had to gut the roster because of the cap. now this is a situation where we had the players, had the QB in mark brunell, were in our championship window of oppurtunity with 3 possible hall of fame players but we had to gut the roster because of the cap even though we were making the reenue to make us profitable and fit the players into their proper salaries. so when we were hot we had to break the team up and missed the playoffs for 5 years in forced rebuilding.
as a young franchise the 5 years of loosing hurt us a hell of a lot more than having to pay our guys to resign with us and keep filling the stadium up with a championship caliber football team.
now we have gone through the cap hell and we are becoming a trendy pick to win the superbowl this upcoming season. but the cap is about to bite us in the ass again. WHY? we have 30 million dollars of cap room. well there is something called a cap MINIMUM. no matter what you have to spend x amount every year. that's BS. this is because of the TFR model. the TFR model means that every dime that comes into the pocket of all the owners is added up, divided by 32 crossed by .65 and that is the cap. you have to spend i think 87% of that number to field a team. so that means that in dallas where they have all the tradition in the world, rings, a fan base, and more people in the city when they make a billion dollars, i am mandated to pay my players more even though my roster is better and they are willing to play for me for less.
This is just further proof that socialism in all its forms just hurts everyone.
what has the cap succeeded in doing? nothing. there was still a dunasty. the alternative minimum for the cap is driving required player costs so high on middle and low revenue teams that they are going into the red just to field a team. that is against the nature of the salary caps intentions. right now the cap will mandate that most teams outside of the big stadium high revenue teams loose money and bleed to death even if they win the superbowl every year. that is crap.
3.) you can't buy a championship.
Dan snyder is an idiot. i don't worry about him. he doesn't know how to find talent, they just sing people for more than they are worth. he spends money like water now and are the skins really all that good. the nfl has what you call a soft cap meaning that you can push a contract out with bonus money to minimize the hit so basicly the redskins sign whoever they want anyway. with restricted free agency, franchise tags, and the willingness to let some players go the really big name players are always with the teams that drafted them. when someone gets into free agency in the modern era there is usually something wrong with them. they are generally too old, or have a bad attitude. everyone overrates the impact of FA every year. nate clement was the highest paid defensive player in history with 80 million dollars. who is nate clement? that''s my point. the supplu of top free agents is so low that the demand is way up and they get overpaid bigtime. this eats the hell out of the big revenue teams that sign them because they are really average players.
the legit question you could make is dallas, but when you look at their dynasty i know they drafted troy aikman, and they drafted emmit smith. this has always been a real draft and develop league. the salary cap only keeps you from keeping the guys that you draft. the 49ers can traace their dynasty back to the one draft where they got montanna and like 6 other starters. and the team that drafted those players is in a window of a championship and was filling the stadium anyway.
so don't worry about someone buying up all the good players, their are enough to go around, the draft and college football prevent a pure monopoly, you still have to do talent evaluation.
4.) the economy has little effect on the total football picture.
certain towns liek j vile who are heavy on construction might have a little problem because we are still building a fan base, but the economy won't touch football. the economic situation right now is specific to the riple effects of the housing industry and bad loans. we still have over 95% employment, and football does not have demand it has addiction. this country would not function without the NFL. perople will literally let go of gas and skip meals to go to a game. i know i have done it. and in most places the season tickets are actually paid for in cash so people generally plan out years in advance how to get that done. the nfl is a much safer bet than just about anything.
this should be an indicator to everyone that the economy is not as bad as people think. if it ever gets to the point where a low budget gozilla rip off doesn't make a million dollars or stadiums stop filling up, then you worry. when there is a specific product in the marketplace that just has to weed itself out then just chill.
I could talk about this all day, i hope i answered your question, but please, don't sweat it. we are going to be fine, the cap is not that big of a deal. i know here in the ville we have a winner right now below the league minimum and we have most of our key guys locked up for the longterm.
