Strelnikov
4th Level Red Feather
- Joined
- May 7, 2001
- Messages
- 1,812
- Points
- 0
UNCLASSIFIED
Regional and Country Watch List (RCWL) No. 24
30 April 2003
Based entirely on information obtained from the public Internet and from unclassified hard copy reports and periodicals, the monthly RCWL is...intended for the non-profit, background use by members of the United States intelligence and law enforcement communities in furtherance of their professional duties.
Our Watch List Framework
This Watch List reflects issues - normally regions or countries - that we think U.S. policymakers should to varying degrees be paying attention to. In some cases the policymakers need to be thinking now about plausible events perhaps occurring that might have a high or moderate negative impact on U.S. interests - even though the likelihood of some such events occurring may be moderate or even low.
The Watch List is organized by global regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East, and Russia/Former Soviet Union). Within each global region we have listed the issues in numerical priority order based on how much attention we think the issues now ought to be receiving from U.S. policymakers. In arriving at these priorities, we took into account the highly subjective "values" (high, moderate, or low) that we placed in the "Potential Impact" and "Likelihood".
The higher we rank an issue within a particular global region, the more we believe that U.S. policymakers should be developing and implementing not only contingency plans to react to possible events deleterious to U.S. interests - but also developing and implementing proactive U.S. integrated strategic plans to advance U.S. global interests. Clearly the "top ranked" issues in some global regions are of much greater importance to U.S. interests than are the top ranked issues in other global regions.
Events of Warning Concern
(Potential Events That Alone or in Combination Could Hurt U.S. Interests)
Asia
1 - Afghanistan
The Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his Hizb-e-lslami group are engaging in substantial anti-Karzai government and anti-coalition assassinations, bombings, and guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan and in the nearby Pakistan border areas. The United States has linked Hekmatyar to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and declared him to be a terrorist. Besides the continuing need to ensure that Afghanistan never again becomes an Al-Qaeda safe haven, other Afghanistan concerns include interethnic/intertribal fighting for power, especially in remote areas and, indeed, even in Kabul where there is much resentment over Tajik dominance of the arms of government; meddling in Afghan affairs by outside powers such as Iran; and food distribution, health, and related humanitarian problems.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: High
2 - India-Pakistan-Kashmir
Senior Indian and Pakistani leaders have had high-level, purportedly productive conversations in recent days, but Indian soldiers, Islamist fighters, and civilians are still dying almost daily in disputed Kashmir. Thus continuing concerns are an escalation in this violence, perhaps occasioned by Pakistan's loss of control over the actions of the militants in Kashmir; a Kashmir crisis-driven military escalation by the nuclear powers India and Pakistan; militants in Pakistan trying to destabilize President Musharraf's rule; and efforts by fundamentalist-led local Pakistani governments along the Pakistan-Afghan border to impede coalition efforts to defeat Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
3 - Indonesia
Despite the risk of deepening the already substantial radical tendencies in this the world's most populous Muslim nation, Indonesia appears to be serious about tracking down and prosecuting all of the perpetrators of the October 2002 Bali terrorist attack-and in prosecuting the cleric Abu Bakar Bashir for his alleged leadership of the regional Jemaah Islamiah extremist group. The peace process in Aceh province appears to be crumbling as rebels and police increasingly engage in gun fights. Islamic-Christian violence persists in many parts of Indonesia, and the economy continues to suffer.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Europe
1 - Balkans
The Balkans are a tinderbox for ethnic tensions and criminality. High unemployment, criminal syndicates, government corruption, and continuing ethnic and religious tensions could make Bosnia, Serbia, and Macedonia destructive, destabilizing forces in the region. For example, ethnic Albanian militants in Serbia's Presevo Valley say they are ready to launch a new insurgency this spring to try to break the area away from Serbia and join it with neighboring Kosovo. The rebels could strike while Washington is preoccupied with Iraq. A Balkans wild card is Al-Qaeda.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Low
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Low
Latin America
1 - Colombia
President Uribe recently announced a written exchange with a faction of the FARC guerrilla movement, generating hope for an accord and release of kidnapping victims. But an early end to Colombia's notoriously bad military-and economic-situation does not seem likely. Leftist guerrillas have been stepping up urban operations. Moreover, as the United States continues to go beyond counter-drug activities to training and supporting Colombia counterinsurgency forces, rebel attacks on U.S. personnel could become commonplace. And the possibility exists of Colombia's conflict spreading to neighbors (especially Ecuador but also Peru, Venezuela, and Brazil). Nonetheless, given our belief that things are pretty much "status quo" in Colombia, we are downgrading from "High" to "Moderate" our measures for both impact and likelihood of events happening in Colombia that are deleterious to U.S. interests.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
2 - Venezuela
The volatile situation surrounding the leftist administration of President Hugo Chavez makes oil-rich Venezuela of continuing concern. The economy continues to suffer and the opposition to Chavez remains strong, if divided. Venezuela and Colombia are having tensions over border security. And there have been reports that hundreds and possibly thousands of agents from Iran, Iraq, and Libya-assisted by many Cubans-are working hard to help Chavez take control of Venezuela's oil industry and also, perhaps, to create Al-Qaeda-friendly terrorist bases.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
3 - Haiti
Already one of the world's poorest countries, Haiti's economic, social, and political conditions continue to deteriorate. Poverty surges, the international community is withholding financial aid because of Haiti's internal political impasse (the main opposition parties are boycotting parliament because previous elections were fraudulent), and human rights abuses are on the increase-noted Jane's Foreign Report (10 April 2003). If President Aristide were to be ousted, there could be wide-ranging impacts on refugee flows and U.S. counter-drug activities.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
4 - Argentina
This once prosperous country is experiencing 25 percent unemployment, with more than half of the populace reportedly living on less than $2 a day. Now there is to be a runoff presidential election between two Peronists: a relative unknown and former president and lightning rod Carlos Menem. Possible events include the collapse of the Argentine economy with deleterious ripple effects on neighboring economies, increased violence, a surge of society-disrupting Peronist-led populism, and a military counterreaction.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Middle East
1 - Iraq
We are pretty sanguine about Iraq's future despite such factors as Saddam Hussein and numerous senior henchman still being on the loose; questions about the disposition of Iraq's WMD; looting and other lawlessness; the widespread availability of arms; the plethora of opposing factions and personalities who will make nation-building extremely difficult; and likely manipulations by outside players (Iran, Syria, Al-Qaeda?). At this point, we believe the task will be very hard, and full of controversy and mini-tragedies-but the U.S. will persevere and succeed.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
2 - Israel-Palestinians
Despite America's military success in Iraq, we still find it hard to see a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis emerging any time soon. Ariel Sharon's recent electoral victory, and Washington's preoccupation with rebuilding Iraq not to mention with Al-Qaeda, North Korea, and Syria, suggest that Washington is unlikely any time soon to pressure Israel to reach a peace accord with the Palestinians. We feel this way despite Washington's recently expressed commitment to resuscitate the "road map" that perhaps could settle the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Even if a comprehensive accord does emerge, at least some militants can be expected to continue suicide attacks and engage in other activities to keep the pot boiling. Increasingly and variously fed by a loose anti-Israel and anti-U.S. amalgam of extremists including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and perhaps Al-Qaeda, the intifada violence likely will continue if not increase. In short, we do not believe the newly installed Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, is going to be able to stamp out Palestinian terrorism any time soon.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: High
3 - Iran
While Iran early on provided some verbal and tangible support in the war on terrorism, its clerical leaders remain anti-U.S. and apparently are now providing some support to Al-Qaeda-as well as to Shiite clerical leaders in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Other concerns remain Iran's WMD programs; support of terrorism, especially of Lebanon-based Hezbollah; and destabilizing Iranian actions re the Middle East peace process or re Afghanistan.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Russia/ Former Soviet Union
1 - Central Asia
The threat of significant destabilization in the fertile Ferghana Valley region (shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan appears to have diminished since the group was mauled in the fall of 2001 in the Afghanistan fighting. However, of growing concern are the clandestine activities of Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a radical Islamic group based in the Ferghana Valley. Though the Hizb has advocated the non-violent overthrow of existing governments in Central Asia and the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in the area, in the post-11 September period the Hizb apparently is becoming more confrontational. Recently confiscated pamphlets condemn the United States and express support for jihad.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Low
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Low
2 - Russia-Caucasus
Though the October 2002 seizure as hostages by Chechen militants of hundreds of theater-going Muscovites was quickly and brutally reversed, repercussions may include an even more violent Russian campaign in Chechnya-thus inviting more bloody reprisals by the rebels and perhaps stronger support in the Muslim world in general. On the other hand, with more than 400,000 Chechens reportedly voting in the 23 March referendum that separatist leader Aslan Maskhadov wanted to be boycotted, there could be increasing pressure on the already fractured rebel movement to fold. (What the Chechens voted for was the effective end to separatist ambitions.) Continuing Caucasus flash points include Abkhazia; Nagorno-Karabakh; succession crises; and energy flows.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Also Watching
The following areas or countries rank particularly "low" in terms of potential impact on U.S. interests and/or in terms of the likelihood of major negative events occurring. Yet these areas or countries appear worthy of some degree of continuing attention because of new developments, because they have a history and/or potential as "hot spots" and, in some cases, because they are geographically or otherwise connected to issues in the above Watch List.
The following countries or groups of countries comprise our "Also Watching" list:
Also Watching List
Asia:
Nepal
North Korea (despite Pyongyang's extensive WMD and conventional military capabilities, and its recent provocative statements about its nuclear weapons program and intentions, we do not believe that the North Koreans are about to take offensive action)
Philippines
PRC/internal cohesion (will Beijing's pathetic handling of the SARS crisis begin to help unravel the Chinese Communist regime-like the Chernobyl cover-up experience helped influence the behavior of Soviet leaders like Gorbachev?)
Nigeria (ethnic strife, possible disruptions in oil production, complaints that President Obasanjo's recent reelection was unfair)
Africa:
Central African Republic
Ethiopia-Eritrea
Great Lakes region (including Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo)
Somalia
Sudan
West Africa (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, and Ivory Coast)
Zimbabwe
Latin America:
Brazil (the new leftist President "Lula" continues to bear watching)
Guatemala (President Alfonso Portillo is suspected of ties to drug trafficking, corruption, and human rights abuses-such problems could unravel U.S. desires to forge a Central American free trade accord)
Middle East:
Saudi Arabia/internal cohesion
Yemen
Because nothing significant appeared on our "radar screen" in the past month or so, we have removed the following countries from the Also Watching List: Peru, PRC/Taiwan, and Turkey.
Note that that although numerous African countries/sub-regions appear on the Also Watching List, none appear on the Watch List.
UNCLASSIFIED
Regional and Country Watch List (RCWL) No. 24
30 April 2003
Based entirely on information obtained from the public Internet and from unclassified hard copy reports and periodicals, the monthly RCWL is...intended for the non-profit, background use by members of the United States intelligence and law enforcement communities in furtherance of their professional duties.
Our Watch List Framework
This Watch List reflects issues - normally regions or countries - that we think U.S. policymakers should to varying degrees be paying attention to. In some cases the policymakers need to be thinking now about plausible events perhaps occurring that might have a high or moderate negative impact on U.S. interests - even though the likelihood of some such events occurring may be moderate or even low.
The Watch List is organized by global regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East, and Russia/Former Soviet Union). Within each global region we have listed the issues in numerical priority order based on how much attention we think the issues now ought to be receiving from U.S. policymakers. In arriving at these priorities, we took into account the highly subjective "values" (high, moderate, or low) that we placed in the "Potential Impact" and "Likelihood".
The higher we rank an issue within a particular global region, the more we believe that U.S. policymakers should be developing and implementing not only contingency plans to react to possible events deleterious to U.S. interests - but also developing and implementing proactive U.S. integrated strategic plans to advance U.S. global interests. Clearly the "top ranked" issues in some global regions are of much greater importance to U.S. interests than are the top ranked issues in other global regions.
Events of Warning Concern
(Potential Events That Alone or in Combination Could Hurt U.S. Interests)
Asia
1 - Afghanistan
The Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his Hizb-e-lslami group are engaging in substantial anti-Karzai government and anti-coalition assassinations, bombings, and guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan and in the nearby Pakistan border areas. The United States has linked Hekmatyar to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and declared him to be a terrorist. Besides the continuing need to ensure that Afghanistan never again becomes an Al-Qaeda safe haven, other Afghanistan concerns include interethnic/intertribal fighting for power, especially in remote areas and, indeed, even in Kabul where there is much resentment over Tajik dominance of the arms of government; meddling in Afghan affairs by outside powers such as Iran; and food distribution, health, and related humanitarian problems.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: High
2 - India-Pakistan-Kashmir
Senior Indian and Pakistani leaders have had high-level, purportedly productive conversations in recent days, but Indian soldiers, Islamist fighters, and civilians are still dying almost daily in disputed Kashmir. Thus continuing concerns are an escalation in this violence, perhaps occasioned by Pakistan's loss of control over the actions of the militants in Kashmir; a Kashmir crisis-driven military escalation by the nuclear powers India and Pakistan; militants in Pakistan trying to destabilize President Musharraf's rule; and efforts by fundamentalist-led local Pakistani governments along the Pakistan-Afghan border to impede coalition efforts to defeat Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
3 - Indonesia
Despite the risk of deepening the already substantial radical tendencies in this the world's most populous Muslim nation, Indonesia appears to be serious about tracking down and prosecuting all of the perpetrators of the October 2002 Bali terrorist attack-and in prosecuting the cleric Abu Bakar Bashir for his alleged leadership of the regional Jemaah Islamiah extremist group. The peace process in Aceh province appears to be crumbling as rebels and police increasingly engage in gun fights. Islamic-Christian violence persists in many parts of Indonesia, and the economy continues to suffer.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Europe
1 - Balkans
The Balkans are a tinderbox for ethnic tensions and criminality. High unemployment, criminal syndicates, government corruption, and continuing ethnic and religious tensions could make Bosnia, Serbia, and Macedonia destructive, destabilizing forces in the region. For example, ethnic Albanian militants in Serbia's Presevo Valley say they are ready to launch a new insurgency this spring to try to break the area away from Serbia and join it with neighboring Kosovo. The rebels could strike while Washington is preoccupied with Iraq. A Balkans wild card is Al-Qaeda.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Low
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Low
Latin America
1 - Colombia
President Uribe recently announced a written exchange with a faction of the FARC guerrilla movement, generating hope for an accord and release of kidnapping victims. But an early end to Colombia's notoriously bad military-and economic-situation does not seem likely. Leftist guerrillas have been stepping up urban operations. Moreover, as the United States continues to go beyond counter-drug activities to training and supporting Colombia counterinsurgency forces, rebel attacks on U.S. personnel could become commonplace. And the possibility exists of Colombia's conflict spreading to neighbors (especially Ecuador but also Peru, Venezuela, and Brazil). Nonetheless, given our belief that things are pretty much "status quo" in Colombia, we are downgrading from "High" to "Moderate" our measures for both impact and likelihood of events happening in Colombia that are deleterious to U.S. interests.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
2 - Venezuela
The volatile situation surrounding the leftist administration of President Hugo Chavez makes oil-rich Venezuela of continuing concern. The economy continues to suffer and the opposition to Chavez remains strong, if divided. Venezuela and Colombia are having tensions over border security. And there have been reports that hundreds and possibly thousands of agents from Iran, Iraq, and Libya-assisted by many Cubans-are working hard to help Chavez take control of Venezuela's oil industry and also, perhaps, to create Al-Qaeda-friendly terrorist bases.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
3 - Haiti
Already one of the world's poorest countries, Haiti's economic, social, and political conditions continue to deteriorate. Poverty surges, the international community is withholding financial aid because of Haiti's internal political impasse (the main opposition parties are boycotting parliament because previous elections were fraudulent), and human rights abuses are on the increase-noted Jane's Foreign Report (10 April 2003). If President Aristide were to be ousted, there could be wide-ranging impacts on refugee flows and U.S. counter-drug activities.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
4 - Argentina
This once prosperous country is experiencing 25 percent unemployment, with more than half of the populace reportedly living on less than $2 a day. Now there is to be a runoff presidential election between two Peronists: a relative unknown and former president and lightning rod Carlos Menem. Possible events include the collapse of the Argentine economy with deleterious ripple effects on neighboring economies, increased violence, a surge of society-disrupting Peronist-led populism, and a military counterreaction.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Middle East
1 - Iraq
We are pretty sanguine about Iraq's future despite such factors as Saddam Hussein and numerous senior henchman still being on the loose; questions about the disposition of Iraq's WMD; looting and other lawlessness; the widespread availability of arms; the plethora of opposing factions and personalities who will make nation-building extremely difficult; and likely manipulations by outside players (Iran, Syria, Al-Qaeda?). At this point, we believe the task will be very hard, and full of controversy and mini-tragedies-but the U.S. will persevere and succeed.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
2 - Israel-Palestinians
Despite America's military success in Iraq, we still find it hard to see a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis emerging any time soon. Ariel Sharon's recent electoral victory, and Washington's preoccupation with rebuilding Iraq not to mention with Al-Qaeda, North Korea, and Syria, suggest that Washington is unlikely any time soon to pressure Israel to reach a peace accord with the Palestinians. We feel this way despite Washington's recently expressed commitment to resuscitate the "road map" that perhaps could settle the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Even if a comprehensive accord does emerge, at least some militants can be expected to continue suicide attacks and engage in other activities to keep the pot boiling. Increasingly and variously fed by a loose anti-Israel and anti-U.S. amalgam of extremists including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and perhaps Al-Qaeda, the intifada violence likely will continue if not increase. In short, we do not believe the newly installed Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, is going to be able to stamp out Palestinian terrorism any time soon.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: High
3 - Iran
While Iran early on provided some verbal and tangible support in the war on terrorism, its clerical leaders remain anti-U.S. and apparently are now providing some support to Al-Qaeda-as well as to Shiite clerical leaders in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Other concerns remain Iran's WMD programs; support of terrorism, especially of Lebanon-based Hezbollah; and destabilizing Iranian actions re the Middle East peace process or re Afghanistan.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: High
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Russia/ Former Soviet Union
1 - Central Asia
The threat of significant destabilization in the fertile Ferghana Valley region (shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan appears to have diminished since the group was mauled in the fall of 2001 in the Afghanistan fighting. However, of growing concern are the clandestine activities of Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a radical Islamic group based in the Ferghana Valley. Though the Hizb has advocated the non-violent overthrow of existing governments in Central Asia and the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in the area, in the post-11 September period the Hizb apparently is becoming more confrontational. Recently confiscated pamphlets condemn the United States and express support for jihad.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Low
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Low
2 - Russia-Caucasus
Though the October 2002 seizure as hostages by Chechen militants of hundreds of theater-going Muscovites was quickly and brutally reversed, repercussions may include an even more violent Russian campaign in Chechnya-thus inviting more bloody reprisals by the rebels and perhaps stronger support in the Muslim world in general. On the other hand, with more than 400,000 Chechens reportedly voting in the 23 March referendum that separatist leader Aslan Maskhadov wanted to be boycotted, there could be increasing pressure on the already fractured rebel movement to fold. (What the Chechens voted for was the effective end to separatist ambitions.) Continuing Caucasus flash points include Abkhazia; Nagorno-Karabakh; succession crises; and energy flows.
Potential Impact on U.S. Interests: Moderate
Likelihood of One or More of the Negative Events Occurring: Moderate
Also Watching
The following areas or countries rank particularly "low" in terms of potential impact on U.S. interests and/or in terms of the likelihood of major negative events occurring. Yet these areas or countries appear worthy of some degree of continuing attention because of new developments, because they have a history and/or potential as "hot spots" and, in some cases, because they are geographically or otherwise connected to issues in the above Watch List.
The following countries or groups of countries comprise our "Also Watching" list:
Also Watching List
Asia:
Nepal
North Korea (despite Pyongyang's extensive WMD and conventional military capabilities, and its recent provocative statements about its nuclear weapons program and intentions, we do not believe that the North Koreans are about to take offensive action)
Philippines
PRC/internal cohesion (will Beijing's pathetic handling of the SARS crisis begin to help unravel the Chinese Communist regime-like the Chernobyl cover-up experience helped influence the behavior of Soviet leaders like Gorbachev?)
Nigeria (ethnic strife, possible disruptions in oil production, complaints that President Obasanjo's recent reelection was unfair)
Africa:
Central African Republic
Ethiopia-Eritrea
Great Lakes region (including Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo)
Somalia
Sudan
West Africa (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, and Ivory Coast)
Zimbabwe
Latin America:
Brazil (the new leftist President "Lula" continues to bear watching)
Guatemala (President Alfonso Portillo is suspected of ties to drug trafficking, corruption, and human rights abuses-such problems could unravel U.S. desires to forge a Central American free trade accord)
Middle East:
Saudi Arabia/internal cohesion
Yemen
Because nothing significant appeared on our "radar screen" in the past month or so, we have removed the following countries from the Also Watching List: Peru, PRC/Taiwan, and Turkey.
Note that that although numerous African countries/sub-regions appear on the Also Watching List, none appear on the Watch List.
UNCLASSIFIED
