Will anyone win 20 games in 2007?

[giantfan121262]

Something happened last season that had never happened in a full Major League season -- neither league had a 20-game winner.
There have been a few seasons without 20-game winners, including 1981, '94 and '95, but those seasons were curtailed by work stoppages.
There have even been several seasons where either the American League or the National League didn't have at least one 20-game winner. But until 2006, never had a full 162-game season been played where neither league produced a 20-game winner.
The Twins' Johan Santana and Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees came close, with 19 wins apiece, but only seven pitchers recorded 17 or more wins and no NL pitcher won more than 16 games. Makes you wonder if the 20-game winner is an endangered species, or if the 2006 season was just one of those statistical anomalies that was bound to happen sooner or later.
Last year's shutout was a surprise. After all, there were four 20-game winners in 2005, three in '04, five in '03 and '02 and six in '01. Over the past 15 years, not counting the labor-interrupted seasons, the two leagues have combined to average around four 20-game winners per season.
Baseball may never see another season like 1969, when the two leagues produced 15 20-game winners. The number of 20-game winners has steadily declined over the past several decades as five-man rotations, specialized bullpens and more hitter-friendly ballparks have meant fewer workhorse starting pitchers, and thus fewer complete games and fewer wins. Six-inning starts are more prevalent nowadays, meaning more chances for bullpens to blow leads and fewer chances for successful starters to finish what they started.

Here are a few who might crack the plateau in 2007:

• Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: The hard-throwing right-hander would have won 20 last season with better support, however, Zambrano only won 16 games for a last-place team that managed to win only 66 games. Only 25, Zambrano is in prime position with a team that could be vastly improved in 2007.
• Roy Oswalt, Astros: Oswalt won 20 games in both 2004 and '05, yet dropped to 15 wins last season despite leading the NL with a 2.98 ERA. Poor run support and bullpen collapses cost Oswalt a third consecutive 20-win season, but his chances for 20 wins in 2007 are strong. The right-hander is only 29, has averaged 34 starts over the past three seasons and finished the 2006 season with a six-game winning streak.
• Santana, Twins: The ace left-hander, who went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA in 34 starts in '06, is primed for another big year for the defending AL Central champions. The Twins got off to a poor start in 2006 as did Santana, who went 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA in the first month of the season. Santana went 10-1 after the break to nail down the Cy Young Award, and he should be in the hunt for 20 wins in 2007.
• Wang, Yankees: The righty, who turns 27 in March, blossomed into an ace last season, and there's no reason to suspect he won't crank out 200-plus innings and make 30 or more starts again this year. With New York's offense, if Wang stays healthy, he could nail down No. 20 this time after coming up one shy in 2006.
• Justin Verlander, Tigers: Like Wang, Verlander blossomed in 2006, winning 17 games and helping the surprising Tigers win the AL pennant. Though his ERA climbed from 3.01 before the All-Star break to 4.54 ERA after, Verlander should be better prepared for the Major League workload this time, and with the Tigers' offense and a stout bullpen to back him up, the youngster could flirt with 20 wins in 2007.
• Roy Halladay, Blue Jays: The tall right-hander, 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA last year, won 22 games in 2003 but injuries curtailed his '04 and '05 seasons. Last season, Halladay was 12-2 with a 2.92 ERA before the break but only 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA after. He was winless in September despite a 2.25 ERA. Back at 100 percent this year and supported by what should be a strong Toronto team, Halladay certainly has a shot to reach 20 wins.
Other starting pitchers with the talent and the potential support to win 20 games include: Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks; Brad Penny and Derek Lowe of the Dodgers; Barry Zito of the Giants; John Lackey and Ervin Santana of the Angels; Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox; Mike Mussina of the Yankees; John Smoltz of the Braves; Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers; Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook and C.C. Sabathia of the Indians; Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals; Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins; Tom Glavine of the Mets; Rich Harden and Dan Haren of the A's; Brett Myers and Freddy Garcia of the Phillies; Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux and Chris Young of the Padres; and Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle of the White Sox.

 

[milagros317]

I would add Jason Schmidt, now of the Dodgers, to your list of possible 20-game winners. 😀

 

[giantfan121262]

I think Andy Pettite has a shot at 20 for the Yankees, if he stays healthy. As much as a Mets fan that I am, I am not sure Glavine will make enough starts to have a chance for 20. I just want to see him get #300 in a Mets uniform.

What are your thoughts on Maddux in San Diego?

 

[Mitchell]

Giant, John Smoltz of my Braves probably would have won 20 games also, as he finished with 16 wins. The deplorable Braves bullpen blew at least five games in which he left holding the lead, in the first half of the season, before Bob Wickman was acquired.
You're right, though, on the whole,. the 20 game winner has become a very special commodity, in an age where a "quality start" is 6 innings pitched, and three earned runs, for a 4.50 ERA, which would have been considered astronomical in the 1980s and 1990s. Nowadays, a guy like Randy Johnson, can win 17 games as he did last year, with a 5 ERA. Shows how much the game has changed from a pitching dominated game, into a hitting and home run dominated one.

Mitch

 

[giantfan121262]

Mitch

I totally agree with you. The number of wins a pitcher has is not a direct indication of how well he has pitched. Look at Steve Trachel, now with the Orioles. He won like 15 games for the Mets last year with an ERA of over 5.00. He just happened to be the lucky beneficiary of high offensive output. If he had the luch Tommy Glavine or Mike Mussina has had (where he is lucky his team scores two runs), he could have lost 20.

IMHO, numbers like ERA, hits and walks to innings pitched ratio, and walk to strike out ratio is a better indication of how that pitcher has actually pitched. Give me any of those numbers over total wins any day of the year.

I also happen to like Smoltz, and you are right, his teams bullpen did blow alot of leads he had when he left the game.

 

[milagros317]

What are your thoughts on Maddux in San Diego?

Maddux is capable of 20 wins pitching for a team with average offense, but SD was way below average in that regard last year. He might wind up with lots of "no decisions" or 2-1 losses.

 

[giantfan121262]

There isn't much pop in the Padres line up. I think if they can adopt a philosphy of manufacturing runs with stolen bases, and hit and run plays, they will be alot better off. I personally like that form rather than waiting for the three run homer. It's a much more proactive approach, which is what I am all about.

they have the personnel who have good speed in Marcus Giles and Mark Cameron. I'd like to see Cameron bat either first or second

 

[giantfan121262]

He might wind up with lots of "no decisions" or 2-1 losses.

If they can successfully bridge to Trevor Hoffman, he will get alot more wins than no decision or losses.

 

[Goodieluver]

• Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: The hard-throwing right-hander would have won 20 last season with better support, however, Zambrano only won 16 games for a last-place team that managed to win only 66 games. Only 25, Zambrano is in prime position with a team that could be vastly improved in 2007.
• Roy Oswalt, Astros: Oswalt won 20 games in both 2004 and '05, yet dropped to 15 wins last season despite leading the NL with a 2.98 ERA. Poor run support and bullpen collapses cost Oswalt a third consecutive 20-win season, but his chances for 20 wins in 2007 are strong. The right-hander is only 29, has averaged 34 starts over the past three seasons and finished the 2006 season with a six-game winning streak.
• Santana, Twins: The ace left-hander, who went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA in 34 starts in '06, is primed for another big year for the defending AL Central champions. The Twins got off to a poor start in 2006 as did Santana, who went 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA in the first month of the season. Santana went 10-1 after the break to nail down the Cy Young Award, and he should be in the hunt for 20 wins in 2007.
• Wang, Yankees: The righty, who turns 27 in March, blossomed into an ace last season, and there's no reason to suspect he won't crank out 200-plus innings and make 30 or more starts again this year. With New York's offense, if Wang stays healthy, he could nail down No. 20 this time after coming up one shy in 2006.
• Justin Verlander, Tigers: Like Wang, Verlander blossomed in 2006, winning 17 games and helping the surprising Tigers win the AL pennant. Though his ERA climbed from 3.01 before the All-Star break to 4.54 ERA after, Verlander should be better prepared for the Major League workload this time, and with the Tigers' offense and a stout bullpen to back him up, the youngster could flirt with 20 wins in 2007.
• Roy Halladay, Blue Jays: The tall right-hander, 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA last year, won 22 games in 2003 but injuries curtailed his '04 and '05 seasons. Last season, Halladay was 12-2 with a 2.92 ERA before the break but only 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA after. He was winless in September despite a 2.25 ERA. Back at 100 percent this year and supported by what should be a strong Toronto team, Halladay certainly has a shot to reach 20 wins.
Other starting pitchers with the talent and the potential support to win 20 games include: Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks; Brad Penny and Derek Lowe of the Dodgers; Barry Zito of the Giants; John Lackey and Ervin Santana of the Angels; Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox; Mike Mussina of the Yankees; John Smoltz of the Braves; Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers; Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook and C.C. Sabathia of the Indians; Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals; Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins; Tom Glavine of the Mets; Rich Harden and Dan Haren of the A's; Brett Myers and Freddy Garcia of the Phillies; Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux and Chris Young of the Padres; and Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle of the White Sox.

Id say no to zambrano. He has no emotional control and is easy to unravel. He also has a history of either getting hurt in the process of games or cruise great but when he hits a bump, he falls apart.

Id count buehrle out unless he realizes his 0-2 changeup SUCKS donkey cock. Zito we will have to see since he has developed a new pitching style, which is said to actually make his curveball worse. Garcia will be interesting but he will be in the national league and cannot keep a baserunner to save his life. Id place my bets on santana and halladay. The are arguably the top pitchers in the AL and consistant. Issue is though that santana generally starts off like shite but then becomes unhittable in the second half. Id also throw randy johnson as darkhorse, being back with arizona may help respark him

 

[ticklingfeet4fu]

Mitch

I totally agree with you. The number of wins a pitcher has is not a direct indication of how well he has pitched. Look at Steve Trachel, now with the Orioles. He won like 15 games for the Mets last year with an ERA of over 5.00. He just happened to be the lucky beneficiary of high offensive output. If he had the luch Tommy Glavine or Mike Mussina has had (where he is lucky his team scores two runs), he could have lost 20.

IMHO, numbers like ERA, hits and walks to innings pitched ratio, and walk to strike out ratio is a better indication of how that pitcher has actually pitched. Give me any of those numbers over total wins any day of the year.

I also happen to like Smoltz, and you are right, his teams bullpen did blow alot of leads he had when he left the game.

What you failed to point out about Trachsel is this though, he won 16 games for the Mets in 2003 when he had an ERA of 3.78 with a team that won 66 games. He threw two one hitters that year and had many a no-decisions. Had he actually pitched for a half way decent team that year like the Cubs or the Braves or the Yankees, Trachsel probably earns himself a Cy Young award. Any decent team that year would have won him 23 games. By the way, his ERA for 2006 was 4.97.

 

[storm7400]

Erik Bedard

Everyone is sleeping on the Orioles but me. Watch out cause The Birds of Baltimore will be on the hunt in 2007!

 

[giantfan121262]

What you failed to point out about Trachsel is this though, he won 16 games for the Mets in 2003 when he had an ERA of 3.78 with a team that won 66 games. He threw two one hitters that year and had many a no-decisions. Had he actually pitched for a half way decent team that year like the Cubs or the Braves or the Yankees, Trachsel probably earns himself a Cy Young award. Any decent team that year would have won him 23 games. By the way, his ERA for 2006 was 4.97.

LMAO, George! You crack me up. Only you would point that out! OK I am off by .03, report me to the Sports Forum mods!

Seriously though, you raise a good point. I was using Trachel as an example. I couldn't think of anyone else at the time! Another example would be Bob Welch of Oakland in 1989. He won 26 games, but his ERA was close to 4.00, which was high during that time. I happen to think that Trachel was one of the most dependable pitchers the Mets have had in a long time. He never pitched great on a consistent basis, but almost always kept them in the game. I am sad to see him go.

That is a fair point you raise, again the # of wins are not indicative of how he really pitched. In this case its the other end of the spectrum where number of wins are understated but the ERA is much better than what you would expect from a pitcher with such few wins. I didn't really elaborate, but I think this concept could fall into the category where a pitcher gets little run support, but nonetheless it was an excellent point!

 

[NYTickleguy]

I think the player with the best chance of winning 20 games in Ching Mieng Wang of the yankees...and it pains me to say that because I bleed blue and orange (have been a die hard Mets fan from day one) but with what we say last season (19 wins) and the caliber of the yankees offense, he stands probably the best chance. Of the people listed there are certainly a few that won't get there... Freddie Garcia for starters, and that is not because the phillies share a division with the Mets, I say that because I have always thought he is overrated (i hope that comment doesn't come back to bite me in the ass during the season) but if he couldn't win 20 games with a world championship team, then why would he in Philly...also Carlos Zambrano because once again he won't get a lick of help from the anemic Chicago offense...and Tom Glavine because he had 11 wins by the all star break last year and ended the season with 15.