How Much Longer Can The TMF Keep Growing?

[moriaritytk]

I haven't annoyed people with one of my statistical analysis posts for a long time, but here are some interesting facts about the TMF membership as we approach our one-year anniversary:

The TMF added 76 members in the first 11 days of March.

The smallest member gain was 4 on Sunday, March 3 (all the potential ticklers must have been in church).

The biggest member gain was 10 on Tuesday, March 5. (apparently ticklers weren't "Watching Ellie" on NBC).

On the average day, 7 new members joined. (6.9090909090909 for the purists).

These numbers have been fairly consistent over the past few months. We saw a slight boost around the time that Howard Stern was pushing tickling in late January and early February (about 12-15 people joined on many of those days).

Maintaining the 7-a-day average for a year would add about 2,500 more members in a year.

What do people think? Will we climb over the 5,000 mark sometime before the end of 2002? Or, have we pretty much reached about all the English-speaking ticklers with computers who are out there? Will the new members taper off to a handful of new ticklers who reach age 18 each month and can officially join?

It's worth noting that Yahoo--which allows people to designate interests on their profiles--shows just over 3,000 people who have chosen to note tickling as an interest. It's also worth noting the the Tickletown site is getting inundated with hits--far more than could be produced by just the current members of the TMF.

If we do keep adding members, where are they coming from and why did it take them so long to get here? Many of us were destined to belong to this community ever since we had enough teeth to chew our Flintsone vitamins. Did you people who joined this month just realize you were into tickling? Or, did that goofy Dell kid finally convince you to buy a computer and get online? Or, is there something about the site that just speaks to a half dozen lurkers each day and causes you to sign up?

That's the assignment for today, class. In 100 words or less, tell us whether you think TMF membership is due to level off or keep growing, and why. No peeking at the paper of the person in the next desk. I think you can all guess how cheaters are punished in this class.

 

[GuitarPeteTklr]

An Important Consideration For Any Membership-Based Organization...

Good topic, moriartytk!

In light of your (and some others' here) love of statistical analysis, there are 2 other cohorts of measurement that, I think, bear mentioning.

Both these cohorts are driven (or not driven, as the case may be) by the level of humility ( or lack there of) of the overseers and members of that membership based organization.

Those cohorts (which bear separate measurements, in order to get a more accurate assessment of just how many static and new members are ACTIVE) are retained and inactive members (aka "curious visitors" and "lurkers," respectively).

I think Myriads, for one, might be able to tell you what capacity the forum has, logistically, to accomodate newly registering members. He might also be able to shed some light on what, if any, deletion policies are are in place for members who demonstrate an "extraordinary" tenure of inactivity or otherwise wish to terminate membership (Perish the thought! 😱 ). Then, one must ask, (assuming the capacity to add new members logistically is negligable) how much system capacity is spent on those that are active? Still further, one might ask how much capacity the forum has, based on only those members who choose to get or stay active? I think the answers to these questions have a significant impact on your study, from a "logistical" spirit, anyhow.

As for a socially motivated answer? I believe the most responsible approach is to forget about all these logistics (unless the results clearly and emphatically identify potentially dire future impact to the forum's growth and well-being, of course) and maintain the current climate here...which I have found to be...THE MORE, THE MERRIER!

It doesn't take a logistical study to determine that, if you want validation for your "interest"/"kink"/"paraphilia"/"fetish," then your emotional energy is best spent on being inclusive, as non-categoric or non-judgemental as is reasonably possible to have a "safe" forum, and as accomodating and approachable as the forum can possibly manage to be. Judge not, lest ye be judged. If you desire trust and compassion, you need to set an example by extending a bit of it, first.

I do not mean to sound defensive or accusative here. I just think that this forum has embarked on a very admirable mission and fulfills a great societal need. The successful proliferation of that mission depends on us not becoming too "bureaucratically" or "programatically" focused in administering its future. While such information is helpful to administrators planning the future of a membership-based organization, I have found that those who rise to the top of the "mission fulfillment charts" are those who don't let their members get the feeling that they are merely a "case study," "guinea pig," or "statistic." Sooner or later, the membership-based organizations who thrive are those who treat people as "sensitive emotional beings" who have original and intelligent thoughts, cheritable hearts, and meaningful purpose, as opposed to a "counted beans" in a "bean counting" management mindset.

Long live the spirit and the mission of TMF!

Again, My $.02, after inflation...which put me WELL OVER 100 words...heartfelt apologies, moriartytk, if you feel an apology is due you...😀

Tickle and be tickled onward, fellow ticklephiles!

*GuitarPeteTklr shreds his way back into tickling oblivion*

 

[toyou444]

My e-group site has over 6000 memebers. I think the TMF can continue grow without bounds for the near future...surely there are always a certain number of new people getting on the internet, and a percentage of those may be into tickling, which would lead part of them to do an internet search and lead many of them here. Now as to whether they join or not..that's the better question. Of course sometimes I find myself forgetting to log in and appearing as a guest on the board while I'm perusing...but I digress. Unless there is some computer/technology related reason...shouldn't the TMF be able to grow indefinitely?😕

~ toyou

 

[TMF Jeff]

Very interesting subject!

I would guess that there is no limit in sight to our growth.

Some other factors to condsider are the fact that some people create more than one username for one reason or another (forgotten password, forgot that they already registered etc) and that while the US has a very strong internet capacity, and some other nations do, many many countries are just beginning to experience the tip of what was for us ten years or so of explosive internet growth. In particular the Eurpopean Union should start to significantly change the landscape of the internet within a year or two.

Rather than stagnating, or remaining the same, I would expect the TMF's growth to increase dramatically over the next 3-10 years as we become more accessible by other countries and to other languages.

 

[DarkSoul]

as long as there are people into tickling this place will
be found and people will keep joining all we could is watch
memebers increase everyday

 

[strtbottomjim]

In my case, I really did NOT know how my head worked until fairly recently. And then I did what a lot do to start: enter "tickle" as a 'net search term. Felt wonderful finding out there were "others" and landed here maybe three days later 😛. First stop was that Salon article; once I found out there was such thing as a "tickle party", I went a little bit nuts (pardon the pun 😀) trying to learn more.

In my case, the pain aspect had long kept me from even considering the BDSM thing, even though I'd known some people into that many years ago.

Looking at BDSM with a fresh viewpoint, it seems there's a lot of lady dominants out there, but I would think there's many "potential femdoms" who fall into the "dominant" mindset but are "too nice" to get off on inflicting pain or otherwise doing the "leather bitchgoddess with a whip" thing. If so, it's quite possible tickling might be seen as a way to get into a "playful, happy, laughing sort of control"? The dominance and control would be there, but not the other "negative vibe elements"?

I think the only reason this hasn't happened already is the scarcity of boy 'lees?

 

[Myriads]

First the Answer part of the program:

Pete said: I think Myriads, for one, might be able to tell you what capacity the forum has, logistically, to accomodate newly registering members. He might also be able to shed some light on what, if any, deletion policies are are in place for members who demonstrate an "extraordinary" tenure of inactivity or otherwise wish to terminate membership (Perish the thought! ). Then, one must ask, (assuming the capacity to add new members logistically is negligable) how much system capacity is spent on those that are active? Still further, one might ask how much capacity the forum has, based on only those members who choose to get or stay active? I think the answers to these questions have a significant impact on your study, from a "logistical" spirit, anyhow.


The forum can accomodate more registered users then we'll need to worry about. I've seen Vb boards with memberships in the tens of thousands. No need to worry there.

We don't delete inctive members. I assume that a person who is inactive, might have decided to take a break from the community, or is simply browsing as a guest again, as they don't feel that they have a pressing need to post. The account is left there in case they want it again. If a user wants to be deleted and requests it, the account is removed.

The forum's server seems to be able to deal with a very heavy load with no trouble. Slowly the average 'same time' user numbers has been moving up. We tend to be in the High 300's to mid 400's all the time now. 6 months ago we rarely cracked 400. Now we often crack 500. The server has shown no lag or stress at all during heavy times. I think we are covered for the forseeable future.

Thus ends the answer part of the show.

Now as to future growth:

I'm comfortable saying that the US market will continue to supply us with a solid daily base of new members. More people get on line here each day, and as someone said a fragment of that number will come here. Also, people who only have had access at work who can't use the TMF due to all the wonderful reasosn on can imagine, will get home systems and join. And sometimes it takes a good bit for a person to realize that they can search for tickling on the web. And once they do it takes them a good bit to get over the wealth they find and sort it all out. Eventully they find us.

I wager they will provide us with 3 to 5 members a day for a very very very long time.

Jeff's statement about the EU coming online in a big way is one of the aspects that I also think will majorly be fueling the TMF's growth in the coming years.

Internet access is starting to take solid hold in Europe, and I think is at about the place the US was in about '94-'95. With flat fee access just starting to become the norm, over pay by the hour plans. This is the point that internet use and growth takes off.

Some examples:

Note the emergence of the French video company a week or so ago. This shows that the commercial aspects of the web are maturing in Europe to the point that small fetish oriented businesses like tickling videos can start to find the market in their home areas.

We have been seeing a large UK membership growth of late. Clearly folks there are finding us once they are online for a bit.

If you spend time in the chat room, you'll find a very good European representation. I can think of a dozen regulars who hail from the eastern side of the Atlantic from places all across the continent.

What we are doing:

Many of you have no doubt noticed that we added international native language forums a month or so back. While they are not highly used right now, I feel that in time they will be. While many Europeans speak English as a second (or third!) language, I wager that a good number will not. These forums will act as places where they can interact with others who enjoy tickling while using the languages they are most comfortable. In the next few months we will be taking steps to make it simpler for Non-English speaking folks to register to the TMF and be able to find these forums. As Europe comes online we will be there for it!

The same will hold for other parts of the world. As internet access becomes more common in the southern hemisphere, and across China and Japan, we'll see more folks from those parts of the world. South America is already contributing a fair number of users.

We will also be taking steps to be sure that when someone enters the word tickling, NO MATTER WHAT THE LANGUAGE, into one of the major search sites, the TMF will arrive near the top. We want people to be able to find us. After all it's the first step to getting them as members 🙂

Ok, but what else?:

I've spoken about national regions of the world, but our growth is/will be coming from other areas of our own comunity.

In the past few months we've been seeing a higher number of women registering and being active on the forum. When I get a chance to talk to new members in this group, many tell me that the feeling of security and community that we project was a major factor in the decision to join. I like hearing that, and we will keep working at it.

Recently we are seeing more male members becoming comfortable talking about playing the lee part of the tickling equation. This community is made up of several different tickling tastes, and people are starting to discover that we are accepting of them, and that they can can find a place to interact her also. The TMF is more then just a place for 'lers'. As 'lee's' of all genders realize this their joining seems to follow.

Growth will come from these areas in fair amounts I wager.

I see strong steady growth for some time. And we are taking steps to make it simple, easy. and desirable 🙂

Myriads

 

[strtbottomjim]

One thing I don't see around here much is the "gay contingent". In perusing some of those boards, it seems there's more of a "harsh" tone to the tickle-play? As if they're more into mixing tickle with pain, or going past "bondage as necessary to max tickling" and towards "bondage as a means to delivering discomfort"? I dunno, that's certainly not universal, but it does seem to be a trend?

 

[Frink]

applause, applause

An excellent, "State of the TMF Address," Myr! 😎

Seriously, you might want to make something akin to this a periodic (every so often) regular post. It's good to hear what the trends are, where things are going, how the membership is developing, and most importantly how we're beefing up security to combat tickle-terrorism....er...something like that 😛

Thanks! 🙂

 

[dvnc]

One must also remember that there are those of our kind that have no net access, for whatever reason, which limits the online numbers. Eventually, we, as a subculture, will have events that the non-geeked can attend, and that will grow the community further still.

Regarding the lack of VISIBLE males 'lees, there's an unfortunate tendency for some small-minded folks to scorn a man that wishes the subordinate position, in our interest. This not only keeps men quiet about any interest in being the bottom, but also serves to keep many women from coming out.

When folks stop pushing the negative perspectives onto those of this interest whose favoritisms aren't m/f, more of the females will show, and more of the men will admit publically what's been known by some of us, privately, for years. There's a LOT of men that have such an interest, and more still that will exchange play time. There's WAY more women in this community than are seen posting.

There's less women posting on the TMF than there is attending my gatherings, for example, and the TMF has 20 times the members that my events have.

Someday, tolerance for those that belittle men that bottom will wane. Someday, women will feel encouraged to attend and participate, though likely without their email address visible. I patiently wait this, and am pleased to see that change starting.

You, strtbottomjim, are bold enough to share your delight. I hope to see that others like you are made comfortable and post vigorously. The more, the better, and it's getting bigger all the time, here.

dvnc

 

[tummyticklish01]

The TMF is just like the Energizer bunny...it keeps going, and going...😉

 

[Neutron]

Invalid Question

Invalid question. And a poor use of statistics. You don't have enough data and you have nothing to compare it to. So why bother? What you have is a bunch of unrelated and random numbers, with too many variables. So you'll never know. You might as well take any site on the net and try to predict how many people will randomly click on it.

Tron

 

[TMF Jeff]

Re: Invalid Question

Invalid question. And a poor use of statistics. You don't have enough data and you have nothing to compare it to. So why bother? What you have is a bunch of unrelated and random numbers, with too many variables. So you'll never know. You might as well take any site on the net and try to predict how many people will randomly click on it.

Tron

You're wrong on every point.

 

[shark]

I personally went online in January 2001.and founf this site within a month or two. However,I never registered until after a few months of pretty regular visits.If alot of people do the same as I did,you may find a barrage of members one day.

 

[CitY of MicA]

I, too, had no internet access until about a year ago. It took me half a year to actually become a member here. To be sure, the fact that the cost of PCs has dropped so significantly will ensure more people will have computers and net access at home.

This forum's inclusive-mindedness (ouch! that was a painful word) and flame-free policy will always help to grow the membership. People may find a home here when other sites do not provide one. I would speculate that there will be an influx of foreign members from certain cultures who will eventually ease their restrictions/make the internet more accessible.

 

[Prime]

Re: Invalid Question

Invalid question. And a poor use of statistics. You don't have enough data and you have nothing to compare it to. So why bother? What you have is a bunch of unrelated and random numbers, with too many variables. So you'll never know. You might as well take any site on the net and try to predict how many people will randomly click on it.

Tron

could be the reason he bothered with the thread was because its interesting..and i have also thought about the growth of the TMF as obviously others have looking at the responses. True there are variables that may not even be known yet. but its still a nice conversational thread....so basically your response to this thread pretty much serves no contructive purpose.



on the topic of the thread (well sort of) i have noticed i lot of new posters since i registered....i have also noticed alot of people that used to post alot dont anymore....sometimes i wonder why that is...maybe its loss of computer access, loss of desire, change in relationship..burnout....could be lots of things...makes you wonder how many people posting today will be posting a year or 2 from now.

 

[TickledToDeath]

How many ticklers and ticklees are there in the world?
How many are not of age yet and are unable to join because of that but who will soon BE able to?
How many are there who have yet to even HEAR about the TMF?

The possibilities are endless!😀


TTD

 

[Neutron]

No Jeff

Jeff,

My 18 years as an engineer and 3 engineering degrees tell me I'm right. I'd like to think in that time I've learned something about Engineering. His topic is too broad and a misuse of statistics. They aren't specific enough.
An example. I'll use an engineering example. A BTU is the amount of heat or energy needed to raise the temperature of one pound mass water one degree. I could come up to you and say Jeff, I've just added 1 billion BTU to this vat of water. To which many would reply WOW it must be hotter than hell. In reality I told you nothing worth knowing. You'd need to know how much water thee was, the rate I added the heat at. Whether it started as ice, what the ambient temperature is and about 7 or 8 other things for it to be meaningful. Statistics are the same way.

I shouldn't have said the thread is useless. It's not. But the info in it is meaningless because it's way to broad.

I have a couple questions

For anyone reading this:

How long have you been on the net?

How has your net usage changed during that time. If at all.

How did you hear about the TMF?

Have you recommended it to anyone else?

Have they used it?

Where are you from?

Most importantly How easy is it to access the net in your area and is net usage prevalent?

ASk stuff like this and you'll get your answers. But to measure potential growth based on day to day statistics and asuming that as more foreign countries get access that the TMF will grow at the same rate, is faulty use of statistics.

Just a cut from a guy who uses statistics and analyzes them every day.

Be Safe

TRon

 

[Prime]

Sigh

you still don't get it neutron....i have nothing against you..and even after this post i still won't...take this statement how you want to...but who gives a flying fart whether all the facts are in...the statistics don't have to be perfect....the originator of this thread never said the figures were the word of God. its all in fun...but your kinda sucking the fun out of it...you have to see that..even if you are right..do you have to keep coming back and saying it..let it go man if you don't like this thread move along dude. theres lots of other stuff to read. 🙂

 

[Oblesklk]

The data is relevant

I shouldn't have said the thread is useless. It's not.

Truer words never spoken.

I can tell you that this thread is personally very important to me. It may be important to nobody else in the entire universe (except moriartytk, naturally, since he started it...it's apparently interesting to him).

It is important to me as a webmaster. TickleTown has been seeing insane growth spurts the past few months, and these types of threads are vital to me in measuring the pulse of the community. Whether or not it is statistically accurate is irrelevant to me personally. I'm interested in seeing things like derivative growth, and seeing how this compares to the growth on TT...is it similar, is it out of whack? Is it even remotely predictible? Is it mostly ticklers registering on the TMF and visiting TT, or are there "outsiders" doing both, just to see what the atmosphere is like? And little factoids like this do help.

This is important to me mostly because bandwidth is money. I must be able to predict users in the short term, and therefore, bandwidth requirements, if the site is to stay existing. If I dont't try to accomodate growth, I'm dead in the water.

So for threads like this, the actual perceived importance of statistics, in a historical sense, is worthless to me. Statistics used to predict future usage is like the role of actuaries (no offense to any out there) trying to guess how long people are going to live 40 years from now...they're just pissing in the wind. You can use any number of formulas, theories, or parameters you wish. But you can't use numbers to predict the future, only find correlations. So instead of hardcore numbers, I do use opinions, thoughts, and ideas of why the community would receive some influx all of a sudden...or perhaps there is no influx, and something else is accounting for all of it.

I'm not omniscent, so I don't know. I just enjoy reading these brainstorming sessions, to see what folks think. That's all the internet is, just a collection of thoughts. And all the thoughts on these threads are very useful, every single one.

 

[Prime]

Re: The data is relevant

That's all the internet is, just a collection of thoughts. And all the thoughts on these threads are very useful, every single one.

yeah thats what was i was saying..i just worded it differently. 😛



very well put Oblesklk. i just like reading the statistics. i hope moriartytk continues to post threads like this.

 

[venray]

Sigh

take this statement how you want to...but who gives a flying fart whether all the facts are in...

Unfortunately too many DO "give a flying fart" and see nothing without "proof"to back it up......thus the term Anal.....

 

[qjakal]

Statistically speaking...

Well, have to wade in on the side of mathematics here...lol...because Tron is mostly correct, especially when he states the general uselessness of most statistics in looking at anything relevant...they're tricky little bastards and can be twisted rather easily by fudging the parameters used. Regardless, the TMF should grow at a fairly steady rate unless influenced in an extreme direction by publicity of one sort or another from outside influences, and even then those would most likely be considered "spikes" of little import once you pile up a long enough timeline to be statistically significant. Anyway, here's to growth!! 😉 Q

 

[tklr5150]

It's a proven fact that 87% of statistics are at least 43% wrong no less than 71% of the time. Duh. 😛

I figure, the sky's the limit. More and more people discover there is a such thing as a tickling community or come of age to join it every day. Plus, factor in the seemingly endless number of my split personalities that have yet to register, and the TMF's growth potential is unbounded!

 

[Dave2112]

I can't add much to what's already been said except to perhaps ask those of us here to spread the word to others in the life that you may know.

If there's one thing that the TMF is managing to do, it's becoming almost a "starting point" for the community. Sort of like a "home-base", if you will.

Keep on rollin'...😎